Liverpool — Manchester City: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.8% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 72.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.3% / 23.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.7% / 70.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.4% / 85.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.1% / 93.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Liverpool
6th place · 9 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Bournemouth 1:0
- 12.09.2026 home Fulham 0:0
- 04.09.2026 away Ipswich 2:0
- 29.08.2026 home Nott'm Forest 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Newcastle 2:2
Manchester City
1st place · 15 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Sunderland 5:3
- 13.09.2026 away Man United 1:0
- 05.09.2026 home Coventry 1:0
- 28.08.2026 away Crystal Palace 4:1
- 23.08.2026 home Bournemouth 2:1
This season: Liverpool at home vs Manchester City away
| Metric | Liverpool · at home | Manchester City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–0 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.52 | 1.66 |
| xG against per match | 1.49 | 0.83 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 08.02.2026 Liverpool 1:2 Manchester City
- 09.11.2025 Manchester City 3:0 Liverpool
- 23.02.2025 Manchester City 0:2 Liverpool
- 01.12.2024 Liverpool 2:0 Manchester City
- 10.03.2024 Liverpool 1:1 Manchester City
- 25.11.2023 Manchester City 1:1 Liverpool
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Liverpool and Manchester City meet in the EPL in a fixture that projects as evenly matched. The available assessment gives this matchup high confidence as a balanced contest, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. The main signal points toward an open game in which both teams should have opportunities to score.
The scoring outlook is high, making a BTTS scenario particularly relevant to the match assessment. The likely scorelines include 1:1, 1:2, and 2:1, which further reflect the close nature of the contest and the expectation of goals at both ends. Liverpool have home advantage, while Manchester City enter with a comparable overall outlook in this analysis. The key question is which side can turn its attacking opportunities into a decisive margin, with the available indicators instead pointing toward a competitive and potentially high-scoring encounter.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.