Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.6% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 65.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.5% / 44.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.8% / 24.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.0% / 72.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Crystal Palace
15th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Leeds 0:0
- 12.09.2026 home Ipswich 2:3
- 05.09.2026 away Fulham 3:2
- 28.08.2026 home Man City 1:4
- 22.08.2026 away Everton 0:2
Nottingham Forest
13th place · 5 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Coventry 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Aston Villa 2:1
- 05.09.2026 home Tottenham 0:0
- 29.08.2026 away Liverpool 2:2
- 22.08.2026 home Leeds 0:1
This season: Crystal Palace at home vs Nottingham Forest away
| Metric | Crystal Palace · at home | Nottingham Forest · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 0.64 | 2.29 |
| xG against per match | 1.95 | 1.29 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.50 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.02.2026 Nottingham Forest 1:1 Crystal Palace
- 24.08.2025 Crystal Palace 1:1 Nottingham Forest
- 05.05.2025 Crystal Palace 1:1 Nottingham Forest
- 21.10.2024 Nottingham Forest 1:0 Crystal Palace
- 30.03.2024 Nottingham Forest 1:1 Crystal Palace
- 07.10.2023 Crystal Palace 0:0 Nottingham Forest
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest meet in an evenly matched EPL contest, with the available assessment pointing to a moderate level of confidence. Neither side has a clear overall advantage in the supplied analysis, making the balance between the teams an important feature of the matchup.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with 1:1 among the likely scorelines alongside narrow wins for either side. The assessment of both teams scoring is essentially balanced, so there is no strong indication that both teams will find the net. Overall, the available signal leans toward Nottingham Forest avoiding defeat, but the evenly matched nature of the contest means the draw and either team's narrow victory remain plausible outcomes.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.