Lille OSC — Paris Saint-Germain: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 42.7% |
| 12 | 76.7% | |
| X2 | 80.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.2% / 17.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.6% / 40.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.2% / 62.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.9% / 80.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.3% / 90.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.08.2026
Lille OSC
4th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Angers 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home Auxerre 0:2
- 10.05.2026 away Monaco 1:0
- 03.05.2026 home Le Havre 1:1
- 26.04.2026 away Paris FC 1:0
Paris Saint-Germain
9th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Rennes 2:2
- 17.05.2026 away Paris FC 1:2
- 13.05.2026 away Lens 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home Brest 1:0
- 02.05.2026 home Lorient 2:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.01.2026 Paris Saint-Germain 3:0 Lille OSC
- 05.10.2025 Lille OSC 1:1 Paris Saint-Germain
- 01.03.2025 Paris Saint-Germain 4:1 Lille OSC
- 01.09.2024 Lille OSC 1:3 Paris Saint-Germain
- 10.02.2024 Paris Saint-Germain 3:1 Lille OSC
- 17.12.2023 Lille OSC 1:1 Paris Saint-Germain
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Lille OSC host Paris Saint-Germain in Ligue 1 on 28 August, with the available assessment giving the visitors a clear edge, although confidence remains moderate rather than decisive. Paris Saint-Germain appear better positioned to control the match, but Lille OSC should still have opportunities to make the contest competitive, particularly on home ground.
The scoring outlook points to a medium-scoring game, with both teams scoring considered finely balanced. That leaves room for several plausible match patterns: a level 1:1 draw if Lille OSC can limit the visitors’ attacking influence, or a 0:2 or 1:2 result if Paris Saint-Germain convert their superiority into a controlled victory. Overall, the clearest signal favours Paris Saint-Germain, while the possibility of Lille OSC contributing to the score keeps the exact outcome open.
What matters before kick-off
Opening Matchday Results
Lille opened their Ligue 1 campaign with a 2-0 victory at Angers SCO, while Paris Saint-Germain recorded a 2-2 draw away against Rennes.
Away Head-to-Head Record
Paris Saint-Germain have lost just one of their last 15 Ligue 1 away matches against Lille, recording nine victories and five draws in that span.
Fast Head-to-Head Goals
Five of Paris Saint-Germain's six fastest goals in French top-flight history have been scored against Lille.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.