Lille OSC — Paris Saint-Germain: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 42.7% |
| 12 | 76.7% | |
| X2 | 80.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.2% / 17.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.6% / 40.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.2% / 62.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.9% / 80.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.3% / 90.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Lille OSC host Paris Saint-Germain in Ligue 1 on 28 August, with the available assessment giving the visitors a clear edge, although confidence remains moderate rather than decisive. Paris Saint-Germain appear better positioned to control the match, but Lille OSC should still have opportunities to make the contest competitive, particularly on home ground.
The scoring outlook points to a medium-scoring game, with both teams scoring considered finely balanced. That leaves room for several plausible match patterns: a level 1:1 draw if Lille OSC can limit the visitors’ attacking influence, or a 0:2 or 1:2 result if Paris Saint-Germain convert their superiority into a controlled victory. Overall, the clearest signal favours Paris Saint-Germain, while the possibility of Lille OSC contributing to the score keeps the exact outcome open.
What matters before kick-off
Opening Matchday Results
Lille opened their Ligue 1 campaign with a 2-0 victory at Angers SCO, while Paris Saint-Germain recorded a 2-2 draw away against Rennes.
Away Head-to-Head Record
Paris Saint-Germain have lost just one of their last 15 Ligue 1 away matches against Lille, recording nine victories and five draws in that span.
Fast Head-to-Head Goals
Five of Paris Saint-Germain's six fastest goals in French top-flight history have been scored against Lille.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.