Leeds United — Newcastle United: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.8% |
| 12 | 72.1% | |
| X2 | 59.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.1% / 38.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.2% / 18.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.6% / 43.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.2% / 65.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.7% / 82.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.9% / 92.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.09.2026
Leeds United
11th place · 5 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Brighton 1:1
- 30.08.2026 home Brentford 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:0
- 24.05.2026 away West Ham 0:3
- 17.05.2026 home Brighton 1:0
Newcastle United
10th place · 5 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Bournemouth 2:2
- 29.08.2026 away Tottenham 2:0
- 23.08.2026 home Liverpool 2:2
- 24.05.2026 away Fulham 0:2
- 17.05.2026 home West Ham 3:1
This season: Leeds United at home vs Newcastle United away
| Metric | Leeds United · at home | Newcastle United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.43 | 0.75 |
| xG against per match | 1.56 | 1.04 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.01.2026 Newcastle United 4:3 Leeds United
- 30.08.2025 Leeds United 0:0 Newcastle United
- 13.05.2023 Leeds United 2:2 Newcastle United
- 31.12.2022 Newcastle United 0:0 Leeds United
- 22.01.2022 Leeds United 0:1 Newcastle United
- 17.09.2021 Newcastle United 1:1 Leeds United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Leeds United have a moderate, slight edge over Newcastle United in this EPL meeting, although the assessment points to a competitive contest rather than a clear mismatch. The expected pattern is medium-scoring, with enough attacking threat on both sides to make goals at both ends a likely feature. That leaves the hosts marginally better positioned, but the draw remains a credible outcome.
Newcastle United should have opportunities to test Leeds United, while Leeds United’s home advantage gives them a small degree of additional support in the overall outlook. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 1:0, reflecting a match that could remain close throughout. The safest analytical reading is therefore a result that protects against a draw while giving Leeds United a narrow preference.
What matters before kick-off
Leeds United team news update
Leeds United manager Daniel Farke confirmed that defender Joe Rodon remains unavailable due to a hamstring injury, but noted no new injury concerns for the squad.
Newcastle sweating on Amar Dedić fitness
Newcastle United right-back Amar Dedić is a major doubt after suffering hamstring discomfort during the midweek EFL Cup win over Millwall.
Differing midweek EFL Cup fortunes
Leeds United were eliminated from the EFL Cup midweek following a 6-3 defeat to Chelsea, while Newcastle United progressed with a 1-0 win against Millwall.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.