Le Havre AC — Paris Saint-Germain: Win probabilities, 30.10.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 19.8% |
| 12 | 87.3% | |
| X2 | 92.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.1% / 44.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.6% / 2.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.2% / 9.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.4% / 25.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 54.2% / 45.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.7% / 65.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.6% / 80.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.10.2026
Le Havre AC
18th place · 2 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Marseille 3:4
- 18.10.2026 home Auxerre 1:3
- 10.10.2026 away Lille 0:1
- 19.09.2026 away Toulouse 2:3
- 12.09.2026 home Angers 0:0
Paris Saint-Germain
1st place · 17 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 home Lyon 2:0
- 17.10.2026 away Strasbourg 3:1
- 10.10.2026 home Le Mans 3:1
- 20.09.2026 away Marseille 2:1
- 13.09.2026 away Brest 1:0
This season: Le Havre AC at home vs Paris Saint-Germain away
| Metric | Le Havre AC · at home | Paris Saint-Germain · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–3 | 3–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| xG for per match | 1.33 | 2.51 |
| xG against per match | 1.77 | 1.37 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| Corners per match | 5.75 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 28.02.2026 Le Havre AC 0:1 Paris Saint-Germain
- 22.11.2025 Paris Saint-Germain 3:0 Le Havre AC
- 19.04.2025 Paris Saint-Germain 2:1 Le Havre AC
- 16.08.2024 Le Havre AC 1:4 Paris Saint-Germain
- 27.04.2024 Paris Saint-Germain 3:3 Le Havre AC
- 03.12.2023 Le Havre AC 0:2 Paris Saint-Germain
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Le Havre AC enter this Ligue 1 meeting in a difficult position, sitting 18th with only 2 points after eight matches. Their recent run is also a concern, with four defeats and one draw in their last five games. At home, Le Havre AC have won none of their four matches, scoring only 2 goals while conceding 6, and they have allowed clearly more chances than they create.
Paris Saint-Germain arrive with a much stronger profile. They are top of the table on 17 points and have won all five of their latest matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding only 3. Their away record is also unbeaten after five games, with three wins and two draws, while they create clearly more chances than they allow. The historical matchup reinforces that contrast: Paris Saint-Germain have won five of the last six meetings, with the other ending in a draw, and the most recent meeting finished 1-0 to Paris Saint-Germain.
Overall, Paris Saint-Germain are clearly stronger, with the recent form, league positions and underlying chance balance all pointing in the same direction. The game also has the potential to produce several goals, although whether both teams score remains less clear.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.