LASK Linz — Liverpool FC: Win probabilities, 14.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
8.2%
Home win
LASK Linz
X
15.7%
Draw
W2
76.1%
Away win
Liverpool FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X291.8%
Both teams to score
Yes56.7%
Totals 2.5
Over71.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 23.9% |
| 12 | 84.3% | |
| X2 | 91.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.7% / 43.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.6% / 10.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.8% / 28.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.1% / 48.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.3% / 82.7% |
Goal distribution model
LASK Linz × Liverpool FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.4%
0:1
5.9%
0:2
9.6%
0:3
9.1%
0:4
6.4%
0:5
3.6%
1
1:0
1.2%
1:1
7.1%
1:2
8.7%
1:3
8.2%
1:4
5.8%
1:5
3.3%
2
2:0
1.0%
2:1
2.8%
2:2
3.9%
2:3
3.7%
2:4
2.6%
2:5
1.5%
3
3:0
0.3%
3:1
0.8%
3:2
1.2%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.4%
4
4:0
0.1%
4:1
0.2%
4:2
0.3%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.0%
5:2
0.0%
5:3
0.0%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
0:29.6%
0:39.1%
1:28.7%
1:38.2%
1:17.1%
Odds movement
| W1 | was 9.00 → now 10.00 |
| X | was 6.00 → now 5.50 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.