Konyaspor — Kocaelispor: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.3% |
| 12 | 71.9% | |
| X2 | 49.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.9% / 10.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.9% / 30.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 42.9% / 57.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.0% / 78.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.5% / 90.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.5% / 96.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Konyaspor hold a slight edge over Kocaelispor in this Super Lig meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts a high-confidence advantage, while the overall market signal points toward Konyaspor avoiding defeat. That suggests a match in which home control may be important, although the gap between the teams is not presented as overwhelming.
The game is expected to fall into a medium-scoring range, with 1:1, 1:0 and 2:0 among the most likely scorelines. This reflects a contest that could remain balanced for long periods before a decisive moment separates the sides. Whether both teams score is difficult to call, with that outcome assessed as evenly poised. Kocaelispor therefore remain capable of contributing to a close match, but Konyaspor’s home advantage gives them the stronger overall position.
What matters before kick-off
Kocaelispor's previous match result
In their previous Super Lig match, Kocaelispor secured a 2-0 home victory over Amedspor.
Konyaspor's recent league outing
In their most recent league outing, Konyaspor suffered a 4-2 defeat away against Fenerbahce.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.