Genclerbirligi SK — Erzurumspor FK: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.0% |
| 12 | 69.6% | |
| X2 | 56.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.9% / 11.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.1% / 30.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.8% / 91.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.2% / 96.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Genclerbirligi SK have a slight edge over Erzurumspor FK in this Super Lig meeting, with the overall signal favouring the hosts or a draw. The assessment points to a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, but Genclerbirligi SK appear better placed to control the key phases and make home advantage count. Erzurumspor FK remain firmly in contention, particularly if they can keep the game balanced and limit clear opportunities.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, although the likelihood of both teams finding the net is difficult to separate. The most prominent scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 0:0, underlining the narrow margins and the possibility of a cautious opening. A draw is therefore a realistic outcome, while a close home win represents the clearest alternative. The 1X signal supports a match in which Genclerbirligi SK avoid defeat, but Erzurumspor FK should have enough structure to keep the contest competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Genclerbirligi's Strong Start
Genclerbirligi started the 2026/2027 Super Lig season with consecutive wins over Fenerbahce (2-1) and Goztepe (1-0), putting them at the top of the league table ahead of round three.
Head-to-Head Record
This match marks the 11th meeting between Genclerbirligi and Erzurumspor FK. In their previous 10 encounters, Genclerbirligi earned 6 victories compared to 2 for Erzurumspor FK, alongside 2 draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.