Genclerbirligi SK — Erzurumspor FK: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.0% |
| 12 | 69.6% | |
| X2 | 56.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.9% / 11.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.1% / 30.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.8% / 91.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.2% / 96.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Genclerbirligi SK have a slight edge over Erzurumspor FK in this Super Lig meeting, with the overall signal favouring the hosts or a draw. The assessment points to a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, but Genclerbirligi SK appear better placed to control the key phases and make home advantage count. Erzurumspor FK remain firmly in contention, particularly if they can keep the game balanced and limit clear opportunities.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, although the likelihood of both teams finding the net is difficult to separate. The most prominent scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 0:0, underlining the narrow margins and the possibility of a cautious opening. A draw is therefore a realistic outcome, while a close home win represents the clearest alternative. The 1X signal supports a match in which Genclerbirligi SK avoid defeat, but Erzurumspor FK should have enough structure to keep the contest competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Genclerbirligi's Strong Start
Genclerbirligi started the 2026/2027 Super Lig season with consecutive wins over Fenerbahce (2-1) and Goztepe (1-0), putting them at the top of the league table ahead of round three.
Head-to-Head Record
This match marks the 11th meeting between Genclerbirligi and Erzurumspor FK. In their previous 10 encounters, Genclerbirligi earned 6 victories compared to 2 for Erzurumspor FK, alongside 2 draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.