Kocaelispor — Samsunspor: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.7% |
| 12 | 71.2% | |
| X2 | 57.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.8% / 9.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.8% / 27.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.7% / 75.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.2% / 88.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.3% / 95.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Kocaelispor
6th place · 6 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Konyaspor 2:1
- 24.08.2026 home Amedspor 2:0
- 16.08.2026 away Buyuksehyr 0:2
- 17.05.2026 away Antalyaspor 0:1
- 09.05.2026 home Karagumruk 0:1
Samsunspor
10th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Fenerbahce 0:2
- 22.08.2026 away Rizespor 2:0
- 17.08.2026 home Goztep 3:3
- 16.05.2026 home Goztep 3:0
- 09.05.2026 away Buyuksehyr 0:3
This season: Kocaelispor at home vs Samsunspor away
| Metric | Kocaelispor · at home | Samsunspor · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.30 | 0.32 |
| xG against per match | 0.59 | 1.85 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 24.01.2026 Samsunspor 0:0 Kocaelispor
- 16.08.2025 Kocaelispor 0:1 Samsunspor
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Kocaelispor have a slight edge over Samsunspor in this Super Lig meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a contest with limited separation between the sides. The outlook favours the hosts on the 1X scenario, meaning Kocaelispor are better placed to avoid defeat, but the assessment does not suggest a clearly one-sided match.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with the analysis also indicating that both teams scoring is finely balanced. That leaves several plausible match patterns, from a narrow Kocaelispor victory to a draw in which Samsunspor find the net. Overall, the fixture appears likely to be decided by small details, with Kocaelispor holding the marginal advantage while Samsunspor remain a credible threat.
What matters before kick-off
Kocaelispor recent form
Kocaelispor enters matchday 4 of the Süper Lig on the back of consecutive victories over Amed Sportif (2-0) and Konyaspor (2-1).
Samsunspor last result
In their previous Süper Lig outing, Samsunspor suffered a 2-0 home defeat against Fenerbahçe.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.