Kocaelispor — Samsunspor: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.7% |
| 12 | 71.2% | |
| X2 | 57.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.8% / 9.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.8% / 27.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.7% / 75.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.2% / 88.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.3% / 95.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Kocaelispor have a slight edge over Samsunspor in this Super Lig meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a contest with limited separation between the sides. The outlook favours the hosts on the 1X scenario, meaning Kocaelispor are better placed to avoid defeat, but the assessment does not suggest a clearly one-sided match.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with the analysis also indicating that both teams scoring is finely balanced. That leaves several plausible match patterns, from a narrow Kocaelispor victory to a draw in which Samsunspor find the net. Overall, the fixture appears likely to be decided by small details, with Kocaelispor holding the marginal advantage while Samsunspor remain a credible threat.
What matters before kick-off
Kocaelispor recent form
Kocaelispor enters matchday 4 of the Süper Lig on the back of consecutive victories over Amed Sportif (2-0) and Konyaspor (2-1).
Samsunspor last result
In their previous Süper Lig outing, Samsunspor suffered a 2-0 home defeat against Fenerbahçe.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.