Fenerbahce Istanbul — Besiktas Istanbul: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.3% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 55.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.3% / 20.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.7% / 46.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.4% / 68.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Fenerbahce Istanbul
4th place · 6 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Samsunspor 2:0
- 22.08.2026 home Konyaspor 4:2
- 15.08.2026 away Genclerbirligi 1:2
- 17.05.2026 home Eyupspor 3:3
- 09.05.2026 away Konyaspor 3:0
Besiktas Istanbul
3rd place · 6 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.08.2026 home Corum 6:2
- 23.08.2026 away Alanyaspor 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home Eyupspor 1:0
- 15.05.2026 away Rizespor 2:2
- 09.05.2026 home Trabzonspor 1:2
This season: Fenerbahce Istanbul at home vs Besiktas Istanbul away
| Metric | Fenerbahce Istanbul · at home | Besiktas Istanbul · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.36 | 0.74 |
| xG against per match | 2.15 | 0.54 |
| Shots on target per match | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 05.04.2026 Fenerbahce Istanbul 1:0 Besiktas Istanbul
- 02.11.2025 Besiktas Istanbul 2:3 Fenerbahce Istanbul
- 04.05.2025 Fenerbahce Istanbul 0:1 Besiktas Istanbul
- 07.12.2024 Besiktas Istanbul 1:0 Fenerbahce Istanbul
- 27.04.2024 Fenerbahce Istanbul 2:1 Besiktas Istanbul
- 09.12.2023 Besiktas Istanbul 1:3 Fenerbahce Istanbul
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Fenerbahce Istanbul meet Besiktas Istanbul in a Super Lig contest that appears finely balanced but gives the hosts a slight edge. The qualitative assessment points to a high-confidence preference for Fenerbahce Istanbul, while also indicating that the match is unlikely to be one-sided. Both teams are considered likely to score, suggesting that Besiktas Istanbul should have opportunities to test the home defence.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, with the central outcome range including a draw as well as a narrow victory for either side. That leaves limited room for complacency from Fenerbahce Istanbul, despite their stronger overall position in the preview. Besiktas Istanbul remain capable of contributing to an open and competitive match, particularly if they can turn their chances into an early goal. Overall, the analysis favours the hosts avoiding defeat, with a close game and goals at both ends the most consistent reading.
What matters before kick-off
Level on points early in the season
Heading into matchday four of the Süper Lig season, both Istanbul clubs sit level on six points from their opening three league matches.
Fenerbahce's upcoming European fixture
Just five days after hosting Besiktas, Fenerbahce are scheduled to face Italian club AS Roma at home in the UEFA Champions League.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.