Fenerbahce Istanbul — Besiktas Istanbul: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.3% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 55.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.3% / 20.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.7% / 46.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.4% / 68.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Fenerbahce Istanbul meet Besiktas Istanbul in a Super Lig contest that appears finely balanced but gives the hosts a slight edge. The qualitative assessment points to a high-confidence preference for Fenerbahce Istanbul, while also indicating that the match is unlikely to be one-sided. Both teams are considered likely to score, suggesting that Besiktas Istanbul should have opportunities to test the home defence.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, with the central outcome range including a draw as well as a narrow victory for either side. That leaves limited room for complacency from Fenerbahce Istanbul, despite their stronger overall position in the preview. Besiktas Istanbul remain capable of contributing to an open and competitive match, particularly if they can turn their chances into an early goal. Overall, the analysis favours the hosts avoiding defeat, with a close game and goals at both ends the most consistent reading.
What matters before kick-off
Level on points early in the season
Heading into matchday four of the Süper Lig season, both Istanbul clubs sit level on six points from their opening three league matches.
Fenerbahce's upcoming European fixture
Just five days after hosting Besiktas, Fenerbahce are scheduled to face Italian club AS Roma at home in the UEFA Champions League.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.