Istanbul Basaksehir — Galatasaray Istanbul: Win probabilities, 04.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 40.2% |
| 12 | 78.6% | |
| X2 | 81.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.6% / 34.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.2% / 11.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.1% / 30.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.7% / 71.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.1% / 84.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.09.2026
Istanbul Basaksehir
9th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Kasimpasa 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Trabzonspor 1:2
- 16.08.2026 home Kocaelispor 2:0
- 16.05.2026 away Gaziantep 2:1
- 09.05.2026 home Samsunspor 3:0
Galatasaray Istanbul
1st place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Goztep 3:2
- 21.08.2026 away Erzurumspor 4:0
- 14.08.2026 home Corum 2:2
- 17.05.2026 away Kasimpasa 0:1
- 09.05.2026 home Antalyaspor 4:2
This season: Istanbul Basaksehir at home vs Galatasaray Istanbul away
| Metric | Istanbul Basaksehir · at home | Galatasaray Istanbul · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 4.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.37 | 3.08 |
| xG against per match | 1.01 | 0.48 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.03.2026 Galatasaray Istanbul 3:0 Istanbul Basaksehir
- 18.10.2025 Istanbul Basaksehir 1:2 Galatasaray Istanbul
- 30.05.2025 Galatasaray Istanbul 2:0 Istanbul Basaksehir
- 12.01.2025 Istanbul Basaksehir 1:2 Galatasaray Istanbul
- 10.02.2024 Galatasaray Istanbul 2:0 Istanbul Basaksehir
- 23.09.2023 Istanbul Basaksehir 1:2 Galatasaray Istanbul
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Istanbul Basaksehir host Galatasaray Istanbul in the Super Lig, with the available assessment pointing to a slight edge for the visitors. The confidence in that outlook is moderate, so the matchup is not presented as one-sided. Istanbul Basaksehir should have a credible opportunity to compete, while Galatasaray Istanbul enter the analysis with the stronger projected outcome.
The main signal is towards an open, high-scoring contest in which both teams are likely to score. That combination suggests Istanbul Basaksehir may find attacking opportunities at home, but Galatasaray Istanbul are considered more likely to make the greater impact in decisive moments. A narrow away success is the clearest scenario in the available projections, although a draw also remains consistent with the assessment. The overall picture is therefore of an entertaining match with a slight advantage for Galatasaray Istanbul rather than a definitive prediction.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Super Lig Form
Heading into this Matchday 4 fixture, Istanbul Basaksehir played out a 1-1 home draw against Kasimpasa, while Galatasaray secured a 3-2 victory over Goztepe to reach seven points from three games.
Head-to-Head Record
Galatasaray have won 22 of the last 40 encounters against Istanbul Basaksehir, including a 3-0 home victory in their previous league meeting.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.