Kasimpasa Istanbul — Amed Sportif Faaliyetler: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.5% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 62.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.2% / 8.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.6% / 27.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.2% / 53.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.2% / 88.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Kasimpasa Istanbul face Amed Sportif Faaliyetler in a Super Lig fixture that looks finely balanced. The available assessment points to an evenly matched contest, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. There is a moderate level of confidence in that reading, so the match may be shaped by small details rather than a strong difference in quality.
A medium-scoring game appears the most plausible general profile. Both teams scoring is considered an open question, with no clear indication that this aspect will define the match. The market signal gives Kasimpasa Istanbul protection against defeat, but the broader outlook remains cautious rather than decisive. A draw is a credible possibility, while either team could edge the game if it makes better use of its opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Yira Sor ruled out with injury for Amedspor
Amedspor winger Yira Sor suffered a hamstring injury during their recent match against Trabzonspor and is expected to miss around six weeks.
Amedspor's recent win over Trabzonspor
In their most recent Super Lig fixture on August 31, 2026, Amedspor secured a 2-1 comeback victory over Trabzonspor thanks to a 90th-minute winner from Gift Orban.
First-ever Super Lig meeting between the clubs
The gameweek-four fixture marks the first historic Super Lig meeting between Kasimpasa and Amedspor following Amedspor's promotion to the top flight.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.