Caykur Rizespor — Alanyaspor: Win probabilities, 07.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.1% |
| 12 | 73.1% | |
| X2 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.6% / 8.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.7% / 24.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.6% / 72.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Caykur Rizespor meet Alanyaspor in the Super Lig on 7 September 2026, with the hosts holding a slight but credible edge. The assessment points toward a match in which home advantage may be important, although the gap between the teams is not large enough to remove the prospect of a draw. The market signal also favours protecting against an away win, which fits the overall view of Caykur Rizespor as the stronger side on this occasion.
The expected pattern is medium-scoring rather than an open goal fest. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the match could develop through a controlled first phase before the balance becomes clearer. The most likely scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 2:0, reflecting a contest where Caykur Rizespor have the better path to victory but Alanyaspor remain capable of securing a result. A narrow home win or a draw therefore appears more consistent with the available assessment than a decisive away success.
What matters before kick-off
Süper Lig matchday 4 fixture
Çaykur Rizespor host Alanyaspor at Çaykur Didi Stadium in matchday 4 of the Turkish Süper Lig.
Recent league results
In their previous fixtures, Çaykur Rizespor secured a 2-1 away victory against Gaziantep, while Alanyaspor suffered a 2-1 loss on the road to Eyüpspor.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.