Erzurumspor FK — Konyaspor: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.2% |
| 12 | 72.1% | |
| X2 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.7% / 9.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.1% / 30.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 42.8% / 57.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.9% / 78.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.5% / 90.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.5% / 96.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Erzurumspor FK and Konyaspor meet in the Super Lig in a contest that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, so the result may depend on which team manages the key phases of the game more effectively. Erzurumspor FK should look to make the most of home conditions, while Konyaspor will aim to remain compact and create opportunities without allowing the hosts to control the tempo.
The expected scoring level is moderate rather than extreme, suggesting a game with opportunities at both ends but not necessarily a sustained goal rush. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, with the available signal treating that outcome as finely balanced. Overall, the most reasonable reading is a cautious match in which Erzurumspor FK have a slight protective edge through the home factor, but Konyaspor remain fully capable of taking points. A draw is a credible possibility, and the match may be decided by small tactical details rather than a clear difference in quality.
What matters before kick-off
Return to Süper Lig
Erzurumspor FK returned to Turkey's top flight for the 2026–27 season following a five-year absence.
Erzurumspor FK recent result
In their previous Süper Lig fixture on August 28, 2026, Erzurumspor FK played out a 1-1 draw against Gençlerbirliği.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.