Kocaelispor — Goztepe Izmir: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
35.7%
Home win
Kocaelispor
X
28.6%
Draw
W2
35.7%
Away win
Goztepe Izmir
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1271.4%
Both teams to score
Yes53.5%
Totals 2.5
Under52.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.3% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 64.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.8% / 26.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.6% / 52.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.9% / 74.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Goal distribution model
Kocaelispor × Goztepe Izmir
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.6%
0:1
8.8%
0:2
6.3%
0:3
2.7%
0:4
0.9%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
8.8%
1:1
13.6%
1:2
8.1%
1:3
3.5%
1:4
1.1%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.3%
2:1
8.1%
2:2
5.2%
2:3
2.2%
2:4
0.7%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
2.7%
3:1
3.5%
3:2
2.2%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.9%
4:1
1.1%
4:2
0.7%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.6%
0:18.8%
1:08.8%
0:08.6%
1:28.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Kocaelispor
4th place · 12 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Gaziantep 2:0
- 13.09.2026 away Galatasaray 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Samsunspor 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Konyaspor 2:1
- 24.08.2026 home Amedspor 2:0
Goztepe Izmir
17th place · 3 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Rizespor 2:2
- 12.09.2026 away Alanyaspor 2:2
- 07.09.2026 home Gaziantep 2:4
- 29.08.2026 away Galatasaray 2:3
- 23.08.2026 home Genclerbirligi 0:1
This season: Kocaelispor at home vs Goztepe Izmir away
| Metric | Kocaelispor · at home | Goztepe Izmir · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 0–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.35 | 1.44 |
| xG against per match | 1.07 | 2.46 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
Kocaelispor wins0
Draws2
Goztepe Izmir wins0
Goals per match1.00
Both teams scored1/2
Over 2.5 goals0/2
- 18.04.2026 Kocaelispor 1:1 Goztepe Izmir
- 23.11.2025 Goztepe Izmir 0:0 Kocaelispor
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.50 → now 2.60 |
| W2 | was 2.88 → now 2.60 |
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