Genclerbirligi SK — Galatasaray Istanbul: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
12.8%
Home win
Genclerbirligi SK
X
18.6%
Draw
W2
68.6%
Away win
Galatasaray Istanbul
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X287.2%
Both teams to score
Yes56.5%
Totals 2.5
Over65.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 31.4% |
| 12 | 81.4% | |
| X2 | 87.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.5% / 43.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.1% / 34.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.1% / 56.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.7% / 75.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
Goal distribution model
Genclerbirligi SK × Galatasaray Istanbul
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.0%
0:1
7.9%
0:2
10.0%
0:3
8.0%
0:4
4.8%
0:5
2.3%
1
1:0
2.8%
1:1
8.6%
1:2
9.6%
1:3
7.7%
1:4
4.6%
1:5
2.2%
2
2:0
1.6%
2:1
3.9%
2:2
4.6%
2:3
3.7%
2:4
2.2%
2:5
1.1%
3
3:0
0.5%
3:1
1.2%
3:2
1.5%
3:3
1.2%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.1%
4:1
0.3%
4:2
0.4%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
0:210.0%
1:29.6%
1:18.6%
0:38.0%
0:17.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Genclerbirligi SK
13th place · 7 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Buyuksehyr 0:4
- 13.09.2026 home Kasimpasa 1:2
- 06.09.2026 away Trabzonspor 0:5
- 28.08.2026 home Erzurumspor 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Goztep 1:0
Galatasaray Istanbul
2nd place · 13 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Trabzonspor 0:4
- 13.09.2026 home Kocaelispor 1:0
- 04.09.2026 away Buyuksehyr 3:2
- 29.08.2026 home Goztep 3:2
- 21.08.2026 away Erzurumspor 4:0
This season: Genclerbirligi SK at home vs Galatasaray Istanbul away
| Metric | Genclerbirligi SK · at home | Galatasaray Istanbul · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–1 | 2–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.03 | 2.02 |
| xG against per match | 1.69 | 1.58 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Genclerbirligi SK wins0
Draws1
Galatasaray Istanbul wins5
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 18.04.2026 Genclerbirligi SK 1:2 Galatasaray Istanbul
- 22.11.2025 Galatasaray Istanbul 3:2 Genclerbirligi SK
- 02.05.2021 Genclerbirligi SK 0:2 Galatasaray Istanbul
- 09.01.2021 Galatasaray Istanbul 6:0 Genclerbirligi SK
- 01.03.2020 Galatasaray Istanbul 3:0 Genclerbirligi SK
- 05.10.2019 Genclerbirligi SK 0:0 Galatasaray Istanbul
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 6.75 → now 6.25 |
| X | was 4.90 → now 4.50 |
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