Kasimpasa Istanbul — Samsunspor: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
36.9%
Home win
Kasimpasa Istanbul
X
27.7%
Draw
W2
35.4%
Away win
Samsunspor
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1272.3%
Both teams to score
Yes55.9%
Totals 2.5
Over50.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.6% |
| 12 | 72.3% | |
| X2 | 63.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.2% / 23.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.7% / 71.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Goal distribution model
Kasimpasa Istanbul × Samsunspor
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.7%
0:1
8.0%
0:2
6.0%
0:3
2.7%
0:4
0.9%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
8.2%
1:1
13.2%
1:2
8.2%
1:3
3.6%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.3%
2:1
8.4%
2:2
5.6%
2:3
2.5%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
2.9%
3:1
3.8%
3:2
2.6%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.0%
4:1
1.3%
4:2
0.9%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.2%
2:18.4%
1:08.2%
1:28.2%
0:18.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Kasimpasa Istanbul
8th place · 10 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 home Konyaspor 0:0
- 13.09.2026 away Genclerbirligi 2:1
- 06.09.2026 home Amedspor 2:2
- 30.08.2026 away Buyuksehyr 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Corum 1:0
Samsunspor
16th place · 4 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Erzurumspor 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home Corum 1:5
- 06.09.2026 away Kocaelispor 0:1
- 30.08.2026 home Fenerbahce 0:2
- 22.08.2026 away Rizespor 2:0
This season: Kasimpasa Istanbul at home vs Samsunspor away
| Metric | Kasimpasa Istanbul · at home | Samsunspor · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–3–0 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.15 | 0.81 |
| xG against per match | 1.04 | 1.39 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Kasimpasa Istanbul wins2
Draws1
Samsunspor wins3
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 30.01.2026 Kasimpasa Istanbul 0:1 Samsunspor
- 17.09.2025 Samsunspor 0:0 Kasimpasa Istanbul
- 29.03.2025 Samsunspor 0:2 Kasimpasa Istanbul
- 26.10.2024 Kasimpasa Istanbul 1:4 Samsunspor
- 27.04.2024 Kasimpasa Istanbul 1:0 Samsunspor
- 09.12.2023 Samsunspor 4:2 Kasimpasa Istanbul
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 2.80 → now 2.60 |
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