Istanbul Basaksehir — Gaziantep FK: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
57.3%
Home win
Istanbul Basaksehir
X
23.3%
Draw
W2
19.4%
Away win
Gaziantep FK
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X80.6%
Both teams to score
Yes60.9%
Totals 2.5
Over62.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.6% |
| 12 | 76.7% | |
| X2 | 42.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.9% / 39.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.3% / 15.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.4% / 37.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.1% / 59.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.3% / 77.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.7% / 89.3% |
Goal distribution model
Istanbul Basaksehir × Gaziantep FK
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.2%
0:1
3.4%
0:2
2.6%
0:3
1.0%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
7.1%
1:1
10.7%
1:2
5.5%
1:3
2.1%
1:4
0.6%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
8.6%
2:1
9.8%
2:2
5.7%
2:3
2.2%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
5.9%
3:1
6.8%
3:2
3.9%
3:3
1.5%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
3.1%
4:1
3.5%
4:2
2.0%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.3%
5:1
1.5%
5:2
0.8%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.7%
2:19.8%
2:08.6%
1:07.1%
3:16.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Istanbul Basaksehir
12th place · 7 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Genclerbirligi 4:0
- 13.09.2026 away Amedspor 0:5
- 04.09.2026 home Galatasaray 2:3
- 30.08.2026 home Kasimpasa 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Trabzonspor 1:2
Gaziantep FK
10th place · 8 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Kocaelispor 0:2
- 14.09.2026 home Fenerbahce 0:0
- 07.09.2026 away Goztep 4:2
- 29.08.2026 home Rizespor 1:2
- 23.08.2026 away Eyupspor 1:0
This season: Istanbul Basaksehir at home vs Gaziantep FK away
| Metric | Istanbul Basaksehir · at home | Gaziantep FK · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–1 | 2–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.25 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.87 | 1.09 |
| xG against per match | 1.15 | 1.57 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.25 | 3.67 |
| Corners per match | 5.50 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Istanbul Basaksehir wins5
Draws0
Gaziantep FK wins1
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 16.05.2026 Gaziantep FK 1:2 Istanbul Basaksehir
- 22.12.2025 Istanbul Basaksehir 5:1 Gaziantep FK
- 20.04.2025 Istanbul Basaksehir 2:1 Gaziantep FK
- 23.11.2024 Gaziantep FK 3:0 Istanbul Basaksehir
- 24.02.2024 Gaziantep FK 0:2 Istanbul Basaksehir
- 07.10.2023 Istanbul Basaksehir 2:0 Gaziantep FK
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.77 → now 1.67 |
| W2 | was 4.25 → now 4.50 |
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