Fenerbahce Istanbul — Alanyaspor: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
75.2%
Home win
Fenerbahce Istanbul
X
16.0%
Draw
W2
8.8%
Away win
Alanyaspor
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X91.2%
Both teams to score
No51.3%
Totals 2.5
Over62.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 91.2% |
| 12 | 84.0% | |
| X2 | 24.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.7% / 51.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.8% / 16.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.9% / 37.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.7% / 59.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.7% / 77.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Goal distribution model
Fenerbahce Istanbul × Alanyaspor
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.2%
0:1
2.6%
0:2
1.1%
0:3
0.3%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
9.4%
1:1
7.6%
1:2
2.7%
1:3
0.7%
1:4
0.1%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
12.1%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
3.4%
2:3
0.8%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
10.1%
3:1
7.6%
3:2
2.8%
3:3
0.7%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
6.3%
4:1
4.7%
4:2
1.8%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
3.1%
5:1
2.4%
5:2
0.9%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:012.1%
3:010.1%
1:09.4%
2:19.1%
1:17.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Fenerbahce Istanbul
6th place · 10 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Eyupspor 8:0
- 14.09.2026 away Gaziantep 0:0
- 05.09.2026 home Besiktas 1:2
- 30.08.2026 away Samsunspor 2:0
- 22.08.2026 home Konyaspor 4:2
Alanyaspor
5th place · 11 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Corum 2:1
- 12.09.2026 home Goztep 2:2
- 07.09.2026 away Rizespor 1:0
- 30.08.2026 away Eyupspor 1:2
- 23.08.2026 home Besiktas 1:0
This season: Fenerbahce Istanbul at home vs Alanyaspor away
| Metric | Fenerbahce Istanbul · at home | Alanyaspor · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–1 | 2–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.33 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.70 | 1.28 |
| xG against per match | 1.54 | 1.30 |
| Shots on target per match | 8.00 | 2.75 |
| Corners per match | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Fenerbahce Istanbul wins4
Draws2
Alanyaspor wins0
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 18.01.2026 Alanyaspor 2:3 Fenerbahce Istanbul
- 17.09.2025 Fenerbahce Istanbul 2:2 Alanyaspor
- 09.02.2025 Alanyaspor 0:2 Fenerbahce Istanbul
- 30.08.2024 Fenerbahce Istanbul 3:0 Alanyaspor
- 11.02.2024 Fenerbahce Istanbul 2:2 Alanyaspor
- 24.09.2023 Alanyaspor 0:1 Fenerbahce Istanbul
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.37 → now 1.29 |
| X | was 4.75 → now 5.00 |
| W2 | was 8.00 → now 8.50 |
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.