Erzurumspor FK — Eyupspor: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
59.8%
Home win
Erzurumspor FK
X
24.7%
Draw
W2
15.5%
Away win
Eyupspor
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X84.5%
Both teams to score
No51.8%
Totals 2.5
Under50.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.5% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 40.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.8% / 8.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.2% / 24.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.3% / 50.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.4% / 72.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.9% / 87.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.2% / 94.8% |
Goal distribution model
Erzurumspor FK × Eyupspor
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.2%
0:1
4.8%
0:2
2.4%
0:3
0.7%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
11.9%
1:1
11.7%
1:2
4.4%
1:3
1.2%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
11.8%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
4.0%
2:3
1.1%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
7.1%
3:1
5.9%
3:2
2.4%
3:3
0.7%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
3.2%
4:1
2.7%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.2%
5:1
1.0%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:011.9%
2:011.8%
1:111.7%
2:19.7%
0:08.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Erzurumspor FK
14th place · 7 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Samsunspor 1:0
- 11.09.2026 away Besiktas 0:3
- 05.09.2026 home Konyaspor 1:0
- 28.08.2026 away Genclerbirligi 1:1
- 21.08.2026 home Galatasaray 0:4
Eyupspor
18th place · 3 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Fenerbahce 0:8
- 12.09.2026 home Rizespor 0:2
- 06.09.2026 away Corum 0:3
- 30.08.2026 home Alanyaspor 2:1
- 23.08.2026 home Gaziantep 0:1
This season: Erzurumspor FK at home vs Eyupspor away
| Metric | Erzurumspor FK · at home | Eyupspor · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–1 | 0–0–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 4.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.73 | 0.51 |
| xG against per match | 1.63 | 3.00 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.04 → now 1.60 |
| X | was 3.25 → now 3.60 |
| W2 | was 3.75 → now 5.50 |
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