KI Klaksvik — KKS Lech Poznan: Win probabilities, 14.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 43.3% |
| 12 | 78.0% | |
| X2 | 78.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.2% / 46.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.0% / 69.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
KI Klaksvik face KKS Lech Poznan in a UEFA Europa League qualification tie that appears finely balanced, although the visitors hold a slight edge. The low confidence attached to that assessment suggests limited separation between the sides, so the match may be shaped by small details rather than a clearly dominant performance. KKS Lech Poznan are marginally favoured, but KI Klaksvik remain well within contention.
The outlook points towards a medium-scoring game, with both teams scoring viewed as an even possibility. That leaves several plausible paths through the match: a narrow victory for KKS Lech Poznan, a level contest, or a result decided by a second goal late in the game. The overall signal leans towards the visitors, but the narrow margin means this should be approached as a competitive qualification match rather than a one-sided encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Second leg rescheduled due to travel disruptions
The Europa League qualifying second leg between KÍ Klaksvík and Lech Poznań was moved back by a day after the Polish side suffered a two-day travel ordeal caused by heavy fog in the Faroe Islands.
First-leg outcome
Lech Poznań secured a 1-0 advantage over KÍ Klaksvík in the first leg of their UEFA Europa League third qualifying round tie thanks to a late goal from Yannick Agnero.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.