Istanbul Basaksehir — Kocaelispor: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.9% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 39.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.6% / 54.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.2% / 26.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.5% / 74.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Istanbul Basaksehir go into this Super Lig fixture as the stronger side on the available assessment, with home advantage adding weight to their position. The outlook points towards a medium-scoring contest, suggesting a match with some attacking potential but without a strong indication of an open, high-tempo game. The hosts’ clearest route to control should be through a disciplined performance that turns their underlying edge into territorial pressure and chances.
Kocaelispor remain competitive in the overall picture, particularly if they can keep the game compact and limit Istanbul Basaksehir’s opportunities in the decisive areas. The assessment does not establish a firm expectation that both teams will score, making that aspect of the match difficult to separate. Overall, Istanbul Basaksehir are clearly stronger, but the moderate confidence level means the margin between the teams should not be overstated. A controlled home performance appears more likely than a dominant one, with the final outcome potentially shaped by how efficiently each side converts its limited openings.
What matters before kick-off
Süper Lig opening round fixture
Istanbul Basaksehir host Kocaelispor at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in the opening round of the Turkish Süper Lig.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.