Erzurumspor FK — Galatasaray Istanbul: Win probabilities, 21.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 37.6% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 84.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.6% / 17.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.6% / 40.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.2% / 62.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.0% / 80.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.3% / 90.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Erzurumspor FK face Galatasaray Istanbul in a Super Lig matchup where the visitors hold a clear advantage, although the confidence in that assessment is moderate. The overall outlook points to a medium-scoring game, with Galatasaray Istanbul appearing better positioned to control the contest and create the more convincing chances.
The possibility of both teams scoring remains finely balanced, so the match could develop in more than one direction. A narrow home setback or a draw cannot be ruled out, but the main analytical signal favours Galatasaray Istanbul. The scoreline range points toward a controlled away win, with 0:2 and 1:2 among the plausible outcomes, while 1:1 represents the more cautious alternative.
What matters before kick-off
Süper Lig matchday 2 fixture
Defending Turkish champions Galatasaray travel to face newly promoted Erzurumspor FK at Kazım Karabekir Stadium on matchday two of the Süper Lig season.
Galatasaray's opening match result
Galatasaray opened their Süper Lig campaign with a 2-2 home draw against Çorum FK, with Victor Osimhen scoring twice including a 90th-minute equalizer.
Erzurumspor's season opening defeat
Erzurumspor FK suffered a 3-0 home loss against fellow promoted side Amed on the opening weekend of the Süper Lig season.
Head-to-head record
Galatasaray remain undefeated in their last four meetings against Erzurumspor, recording three victories and one draw since 2018.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.