Alanyaspor — Besiktas Istanbul: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 43.1% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 81.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.3% / 49.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.6% / 24.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.1% / 71.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.4% / 86.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Alanyaspor
12th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 away Gaziantep 1:1
- 16.05.2026 away Karagumruk 1:2
- 09.05.2026 home Kayserispor 3:1
- 03.05.2026 away Antalyaspor 0:0
- 27.04.2026 home Samsunspor 2:3
Besiktas Istanbul
8th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home Eyupspor 1:0
- 15.05.2026 away Rizespor 2:2
- 09.05.2026 home Trabzonspor 1:2
- 01.05.2026 away Gaziantep 2:0
- 27.04.2026 home Karagumruk 0:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 08.02.2026 Besiktas Istanbul 2:2 Alanyaspor
- 31.08.2025 Alanyaspor 2:0 Besiktas Istanbul
- 18.05.2025 Alanyaspor 1:1 Besiktas Istanbul
- 21.12.2024 Besiktas Istanbul 1:1 Alanyaspor
- 12.05.2024 Alanyaspor 1:1 Besiktas Istanbul
- 21.12.2023 Besiktas Istanbul 1:3 Alanyaspor
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Alanyaspor host Besiktas Istanbul in a Super Lig fixture where the visitors hold a slight edge, although the low confidence attached to that assessment points to a fairly open contest. The available outlook does not suggest a dominant advantage for either side, so Alanyaspor should remain competitive, particularly if they can make effective use of home conditions.
The match is expected to sit in a medium-scoring range, with the most plausible scorelines including a draw and narrow Besiktas Istanbul victories. Both teams scoring is considered a coin flip, which underlines the uncertainty around how the game may develop. A balanced opening could leave the contest finely poised, while a Besiktas Istanbul goal may give the visitors the platform to control the later stages. Alanyaspor will need to limit the spaces available in transition and maintain discipline if they are to turn the matchup in their favour.
What matters before kick-off
Maestro ruled out for Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor midfielder Maestro suffered a thigh tendon tear in training prior to the match against Beşiktaş and was excluded from the match squad.
Beşiktaş enter fixture following Europa League win
Ahead of their visit to Alanyaspor, Beşiktaş secured a 3-0 home victory over Lithuanian side Kauno Žalgiris in the first leg of their Europa League play-off tie.
21st Süper Lig meeting between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş
This match marks the 21st top-flight Süper Lig meeting between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş since their first encounter in the 2016-2017 season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.