Goztepe Izmir — Genclerbirligi SK: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.0% |
| 12 | 73.0% | |
| X2 | 51.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.3% / 45.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.2% / 7.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.6% / 23.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.9% / 71.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Goztepe Izmir
10th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.08.2026 away Samsunspor 3:3
- 16.05.2026 away Samsunspor 0:3
- 09.05.2026 home Gaziantep 2:1
- 02.05.2026 away Trabzonspor 1:1
- 25.04.2026 home Antalyaspor 2:0
Genclerbirligi SK
7th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 home Fenerbahce 2:1
- 17.05.2026 away Trabzonspor 3:0
- 09.05.2026 home Kasimpasa 3:2
- 03.05.2026 away Karagumruk 0:1
- 26.04.2026 home Kocaelispor 1:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.04.2026 Genclerbirligi SK 0:2 Goztepe Izmir
- 01.11.2025 Goztepe Izmir 1:0 Genclerbirligi SK
- 11.05.2021 Genclerbirligi SK 5:3 Goztepe Izmir
- 19.01.2021 Goztepe Izmir 4:0 Genclerbirligi SK
- 11.07.2020 Goztepe Izmir 1:3 Genclerbirligi SK
- 14.12.2019 Genclerbirligi SK 3:1 Goztepe Izmir
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Goztepe Izmir have a slight edge over Genclerbirligi SK in this Super Lig meeting. The assessment carries a high level of confidence in that narrow home advantage, although it does not point to a one-sided contest. The expected scoring profile is medium-scoring, suggesting a match with several meaningful attacking phases without necessarily becoming open from the start.
The most likely scorelines indicate a relatively tight game, with 1:1, 1:0 and 2:0 all featuring prominently. That range reflects a balance between Goztepe Izmir’s home advantage and Genclerbirligi SK’s ability to remain competitive. Both teams scoring is viewed as evenly balanced, so the match could develop either into a controlled home win or a draw if Genclerbirligi SK convert one of their opportunities. Overall, Goztepe Izmir hold the stronger position, but the margin appears limited.
What matters before kick-off
Göztepe Squad News
Göztepe defender Noah Sonko Sundberg is ruled out of the match due to an injury. Midfielder Anthony Dennis is also left out amid ongoing transfer negotiations.
Gençlerbirliği Squad Additions
Gençlerbirliği registered new signings midfielder Cheikh Niasse and winger Tiago Gouveia, making both available for selection.
Opening Matchday Results
In the season opener, Gençlerbirliği earned a 2-1 home victory over Fenerbahçe, while Göztepe played out a 3-3 draw away against Samsunspor.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.