Ipswich Town — Liverpool: Win probabilities, 04.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 36.2% |
| 12 | 79.9% | |
| X2 | 83.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.6% / 38.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.7% / 13.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.2% / 32.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.7% / 73.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.09.2026
Ipswich Town
12th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Man United 2:5
- 22.08.2026 home Sunderland 2:1
- 02.05.2026 home QPR 3:0
- 28.04.2026 away Southampton 2:2
- 25.04.2026 away West Brom 0:0
Liverpool
13th place · 2 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Nott'm Forest 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Newcastle 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home Brentford 1:1
- 15.05.2026 away Aston Villa 2:4
- 09.05.2026 home Chelsea 1:1
This season: Ipswich Town at home vs Liverpool away
| Metric | Ipswich Town · at home | Liverpool · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.80 | 2.98 |
| xG against per match | 0.66 | 1.57 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 25.01.2025 Liverpool 4:1 Ipswich Town
- 17.08.2024 Ipswich Town 0:2 Liverpool
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Ipswich Town face Liverpool in an EPL fixture where the overall assessment gives the visitors a clear edge, although the moderate confidence level suggests the difference should not be overstated. Liverpool are rated as the stronger side, while Ipswich Town remain competitive enough for the match to avoid being viewed as one-sided. The available outcome signal points towards an away win, but it does not remove the possibility of a closely contested game.
The scoring outlook is positive, with expectations of an open match and a strong chance that both Ipswich Town and Liverpool find the net. That combination leaves room for Ipswich Town to contribute offensively even as Liverpool remain the more convincing choice overall. The most consistent reading is therefore a high-scoring contest in which Liverpool's greater strength gives them the advantage, while Ipswich Town's likely goal keeps the result less predictable than a straightforward defensive away performance.
What matters before kick-off
Bradley Barcola availability
Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola confirmed that new signing Bradley Barcola is available for selection against Ipswich Town.
Ipswich home unbeaten streak
Heading into the Liverpool clash, Ipswich Town remained undefeated in 20 consecutive home matches across all competitions at Portman Road (14 wins, 6 draws).
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.