Ipswich Town — Liverpool: Win probabilities, 04.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 36.2% |
| 12 | 79.9% | |
| X2 | 83.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.6% / 38.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.7% / 13.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.2% / 32.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.7% / 73.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Ipswich Town face Liverpool in an EPL fixture where the overall assessment gives the visitors a clear edge, although the moderate confidence level suggests the difference should not be overstated. Liverpool are rated as the stronger side, while Ipswich Town remain competitive enough for the match to avoid being viewed as one-sided. The available outcome signal points towards an away win, but it does not remove the possibility of a closely contested game.
The scoring outlook is positive, with expectations of an open match and a strong chance that both Ipswich Town and Liverpool find the net. That combination leaves room for Ipswich Town to contribute offensively even as Liverpool remain the more convincing choice overall. The most consistent reading is therefore a high-scoring contest in which Liverpool's greater strength gives them the advantage, while Ipswich Town's likely goal keeps the result less predictable than a straightforward defensive away performance.
What matters before kick-off
Bradley Barcola availability
Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola confirmed that new signing Bradley Barcola is available for selection against Ipswich Town.
Ipswich home unbeaten streak
Heading into the Liverpool clash, Ipswich Town remained undefeated in 20 consecutive home matches across all competitions at Portman Road (14 wins, 6 draws).
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.