Independiente Rivadavia — Racing Club Avellaneda: Win probabilities, 31.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.3% |
| 12 | 70.4% | |
| X2 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.4% / 52.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.1% / 10.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.5% / 29.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 42.6% / 57.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.4% / 90.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.5% / 96.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Independiente 0:0
- 15.08.2026 away Belgrano 0:2
- 08.08.2026 home Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2:1
- 03.08.2026 away Sarmiento Junin 1:2
- 30.07.2026 home Huracan 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.08.2026 home Boca Juniors 1:1
- 15.08.2026 home Banfield 0:1
- 10.08.2026 away Argentinos Jrs 1:2
- 02.08.2026 home Tigre 1:3
- 29.07.2026 away Rosario Central 0:0
This season: Independiente Rivadavia at home vs Racing Club Avellaneda away
| Metric | Independiente Rivadavia · at home | Racing Club Avellaneda · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 8–1–3 | 4–5–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.17 | 0.85 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 46% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 26.02.2026 Racing Club Avellaneda 1:1 Independiente Rivadavia
- 07.10.2025 Racing Club Avellaneda 0:0 Independiente Rivadavia
- 28.03.2025 Independiente Rivadavia 2:1 Racing Club Avellaneda
- 10.11.2024 Racing Club Avellaneda 2:1 Independiente Rivadavia
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Independiente Rivadavia go into this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting with a slight edge over Racing Club Avellaneda. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the hosts have the stronger overall position, although the margin is not wide enough to suggest a one-sided contest. The most relevant protection for the home side is the possibility of avoiding defeat, rather than relying on a decisive victory.
The expected pattern is medium-scoring, with neither attack clearly established as more reliable than the other. Both teams scoring is effectively a coin flip, which reflects the balance between a possible exchange of goals and a more cautious match. The projected scorelines include a level draw and narrow home success, while a goalless draw is also considered plausible. Overall, Independiente Rivadavia hold the more favourable side of a closely matched outlook, but Racing Club Avellaneda remain capable of keeping the game even.
What matters before kick-off
Martínez returns for Racing Club
Racing Club forward 'Maravilla' Martínez is available again after the AFA Disciplinary Tribunal reduced his suspension from three to two matches. He served the ban during the fixtures against Banfield and Boca Juniors.
Independiente Rivadavia's recent Copa Argentina win
On August 26, Independiente Rivadavia defeated Aldosivi 2-0 in the round of 16 of the Copa Argentina to advance to the quarterfinals.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.