Estudiantes de La Plata — Newell's Old Boys: Win probabilities, 31.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.6% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.4% / 57.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.9% / 11.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.5% / 30.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.6% / 58.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.0% / 79.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.3% / 96.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Sarmiento Junin 0:2
- 15.08.2026 home Gimnasia L.P. 4:0
- 08.08.2026 away Dep. Riestra 0:2
- 05.08.2026 away Boca Juniors 0:1
- 01.08.2026 home Defensa y Justicia 3:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Banfield 2:1
- 15.08.2026 home Dep. Riestra 2:0
- 09.08.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 1:2
- 02.08.2026 home Boca Juniors 2:2
- 31.07.2026 away Independiente 0:1
This season: Estudiantes de La Plata at home vs Newell's Old Boys away
| Metric | Estudiantes de La Plata · at home | Newell's Old Boys · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 7–1–3 | 2–2–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.64 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.55 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 18% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.02.2026 Newell's Old Boys 0:2 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 30.09.2025 Newell's Old Boys 1:1 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 15.03.2025 Estudiantes de La Plata 1:1 Newell's Old Boys
- 03.08.2024 Newell's Old Boys 1:4 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 19.02.2024 Estudiantes de La Plata 2:0 Newell's Old Boys
- 24.09.2023 Newell's Old Boys 0:1 Estudiantes de La Plata
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Estudiantes de La Plata host Newell's Old Boys in a Primera LPF, Clausura fixture that appears finely balanced, with a slight edge for the hosts. The available assessment points toward a match where Estudiantes de La Plata may have the stronger overall position, but the low confidence level suggests that the difference between the teams is limited. Newell's Old Boys should remain competitive, particularly if they can keep the game controlled and prevent the hosts from building sustained pressure.
The match is expected to produce a moderate amount of scoring rather than an open contest dominated by chances. Whether both teams find the net is difficult to separate, so the game could develop through a narrow Estudiantes de La Plata advantage or remain level for long periods. A close home victory and a draw are both credible scenarios, with the outcome likely to depend on efficiency in the decisive moments rather than a clear gap in quality.
What matters before kick-off
Estudiantes recent Cup result
Estudiantes de La Plata beat Barracas Central 3-1 in the Copa Argentina ahead of their league fixture against Newell's Old Boys.
Recent win for Newell's
Newell's Old Boys come into the match following a 2-1 victory over Banfield in the Primera División.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.