CA Independiente Avellaneda — Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.3% |
| 12 | 70.6% | |
| X2 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.3% / 27.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.0% / 56.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.9% / 77.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.8% / 96.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Ind. Rivadavia 0:0
- 17.08.2026 away Lanus 3:1
- 09.08.2026 home Platense 0:1
- 03.08.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 0:1
- 31.07.2026 home Newells Old Boys 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Gimnasia L.P. 3:2
- 18.08.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 3:1
- 09.08.2026 away Instituto 0:1
- 01.08.2026 home Union de Santa Fe 2:0
- 28.07.2026 away San Lorenzo 0:1
This season: CA Independiente Avellaneda at home vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza away
| Metric | CA Independiente Avellaneda · at home | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 5–4–2 | 2–3–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.45 | 0.73 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.91 | 1.64 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 45% |
Head-to-head · Last 1 meetings
- 25.02.2026 Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 1:1 CA Independiente Avellaneda
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Independiente Avellaneda have a slight edge over Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza in this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting, although the low confidence level points to a relatively open assessment rather than a decisive expectation. The home side is favoured, but the available signals leave room for a competitive match and a possible draw.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with 1:1, 2:0 and 1:0 among the most likely scorelines. That range reflects a balance between a narrow home victory and an even contest. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so this aspect remains finely balanced. Overall, CA Independiente Avellaneda appear marginally better placed, but Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza remain capable of keeping the game close.
What matters before kick-off
Jadson Viera's debut and squad changes at Independiente
Jadson Viera took charge of Independiente following Gustavo Quinteros' departure after their Copa Argentina exit. Independiente will be without right-back Santiago Arias due to a left soleus injury, while striker Gabriel Ávalos has departed the club.
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza's winning streak
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza enter the fixture on the back of two consecutive victories in the Torneo Clausura, having defeated Talleres 3-1 and Gimnasia La Plata 3-2.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.