Houston Dynamo — Sporting Kansas City: Win probabilities, 27.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.2% |
| 12 | 78.6% | |
| X2 | 40.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.7% / 40.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.8% / 16.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.5% / 59.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 4.33 → now 4.20 |
| W2 | was 5.25 → now 4.75 |
Match preview
Houston Dynamo meet Sporting Kansas City in an MLS fixture that gives the home side a clear, though not overwhelming, advantage. The available assessment rates Houston Dynamo as the stronger team, with moderate confidence rather than a decisive outlook. That suggests the hosts are better placed to control the overall contest, while Sporting Kansas City remain capable of making the match competitive.
The game is also expected to be open, with a high-scoring profile and both teams likely to find the net. This points towards an entertaining encounter rather than a tightly contained defensive battle. Houston Dynamo may have the edge in the result market, but the scoring assessment indicates that Sporting Kansas City should not be discounted as an attacking threat. Overall, the most balanced reading is a home advantage within a match that could contain chances at both ends.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Match Results
In their previous MLS fixture, Houston Dynamo drew 2-2 at home against FC Cincinnati, while Sporting Kansas City suffered a 4-3 home loss to Philadelphia Union.
Previous Meeting This Season
In their earlier MLS encounter this season on August 1, Houston Dynamo secured a 2-0 away victory against Sporting Kansas City.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.