Hibernian FC — KF Malisheva: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.9% |
| 12 | 86.1% | |
| X2 | 19.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.7% / 55.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.1% / 13.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.0% / 34.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.2% / 55.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.6% / 74.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.9% / 87.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Hibernian FC enter this UEFA Conference League qualification tie as the clearly stronger side, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high-confidence advantage over KF Malisheva. The projected scoring pattern points towards an open match with several attacking chances, rather than a tightly controlled contest. Hibernian’s stronger overall outlook makes them the more likely team to dictate territory and build sustained pressure.
KF Malisheva still have a route into the game if they can remain compact and take advantage of transitions, but the balance of the preview is firmly with Hibernian FC. The expectation that both teams will score is finely balanced, so the visitors’ attacking contribution is difficult to assess with confidence. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0, 3-0, and 1-0, all of which reflect a match where Hibernian’s control may be the decisive factor.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.