FK Sutjeska Niksic — Maxline Vitebsk: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.1% |
| 12 | 70.8% | |
| X2 | 66.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.6% / 19.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.8% / 67.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.7% / 83.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 2.90 → now 2.70 |
| X | was 3.20 → now 3.10 |
| X2 | was 2.30 → now 2.50 |
Match preview
FK Sutjeska Niksic and Maxline Vitebsk appear evenly matched ahead of their UEFA Conference League qualification meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, pointing instead to a contest where the outcome may depend on small details and how each team handles the pressure of the occasion. With moderate confidence in this reading, the home side’s venue offers some balance against Maxline Vitebsk’s competitive prospects.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests an open enough game for chances at both ends, while neither defence is expected to dominate the contest completely. The most plausible scorelines indicate a narrow margin either way or a draw, including 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1. Overall, the assessment leans toward a result that protects against a Maxline Vitebsk defeat, while recognising that FK Sutjeska Niksic remain capable of taking control on home territory.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.