Match intelligence

FK Sutjeska Niksic — Maxline Vitebsk: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026

League: UEFA Conference League, Qualification · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
FK Sutjeska Niksic1
:
2Maxline Vitebsk
Locked signal X2 Probability 68.3% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 31.7% Home win FK Sutjeska Niksic
X 33.0% Draw
W2 35.2% Away win Maxline Vitebsk
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1268.4%
Both teams to score
Yes59.2%
Totals 2.5
Over52.3%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X64.0%
1268.4%
X267.5%
Both teams to scoreYes/No59.2% / 40.8%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 90.7% / 9.3%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 79.4% / 20.6%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 52.3% / 47.7%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 30.1% / 69.9%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 14.8% / 85.2%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 6.2% / 93.8%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

FK Sutjeska Niksic × Maxline Vitebsk
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 9.3%
0:1 5.9%
0:2 6.3%
0:3 3.0%
0:4 1.1%
0:5 0.3%
1
1:0 5.4%
1:1 15.1%
1:2 8.5%
1:3 4.1%
1:4 1.4%
1:5 0.4%
2
2:0 5.7%
2:1 8.1%
2:2 5.8%
2:3 2.7%
2:4 1.0%
2:5 0.3%
3
3:0 2.6%
3:1 3.6%
3:2 2.6%
3:3 1.2%
3:4 0.4%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 0.9%
4:1 1.2%
4:2 0.9%
4:3 0.4%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.2%
5:1 0.3%
5:2 0.2%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:115.1%
0:09.3%
1:28.5%
2:18.1%
0:26.3%
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

FK Sutjeska Niksic and Maxline Vitebsk appear evenly matched ahead of their UEFA Conference League qualifying meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with moderate confidence in a closely contested game. That points toward a match where control may shift between the teams rather than being established by one side for long periods.

The scoring outlook is medium, while both teams are considered likely to find the net. This suggests an open enough contest for chances at both ends, although the balance of the game could still produce a cautious spell if neither team wants to concede early. The overall signal leans toward Maxline Vitebsk avoiding defeat, but the draw remains a prominent possibility. A narrow result for either side cannot be ruled out, with the central expectation being a competitive encounter decided by fine margins.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

First Leg Result

In the first leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round, Maxline Vitebsk secured a 3-0 victory against FK Sutjeska Niksic.

Schedule

Qualification Pathway

Both FK Sutjeska Niksic and Maxline Vitebsk entered the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round following their elimination from the first qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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