FC Koper — NSI Runavik: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.8% |
| 12 | 80.5% | |
| X2 | 33.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.2% / 40.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.1% / 13.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.2% / 33.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.7% / 74.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Koper enter this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie with a clear qualitative advantage over NSI Runavik, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be overstated. Koper are assessed as the stronger side and are the more likely winners, particularly if they can impose their approach early and maintain control of the match. NSI Runavik nevertheless remain capable of making the contest competitive, especially if they find space in transition or take advantage of defensive errors.
The overall scoring outlook points towards an open match rather than a tightly contained encounter. Both teams are considered likely to score, which gives NSI Runavik a credible route into the game even with FC Koper holding the stronger position. The main expectation is therefore a home victory in a match with several chances, while a draw remains a realistic alternative if Koper fail to convert their pressure. The balance favours FC Koper, but the away side should not be dismissed.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.