Coleraine FC — HJK Helsinki: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.8% |
| 12 | 74.5% | |
| X2 | 73.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.1% / 44.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.8% / 23.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.3% / 47.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.1% / 69.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.7% / 85.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.2% / 93.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Coleraine FC face HJK Helsinki in the UEFA Conference League Qualification, with the available assessment giving the visitors a slight edge and a high level of confidence in that view. The overall expectation is for a medium-scoring contest rather than a match likely to be decided by a wide margin. HJK Helsinki therefore appear better placed to avoid defeat, although the outlook still leaves room for a competitive game.
The scoring picture is balanced: both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, so neither a clean sheet nor goals at both ends should be treated as the dominant scenario. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 0:1 and 1:2, reflecting a match that could remain close deep into the contest. Coleraine FC will need to keep the game controlled and prevent HJK Helsinki from turning their slight advantage into sustained pressure, while the visitors’ clearest route is a disciplined performance capable of producing a narrow win or at least securing a draw.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg result
Finnish side HJK Helsinki secured a dominant 5-0 victory over Coleraine in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League second qualifying round tie.
Match venue
Coleraine's home leg against HJK Helsinki is taking place at Inver Park in Larne.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.