Coleraine FC — HJK Helsinki: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 45.3% |
| 12 | 77.7% | |
| X2 | 77.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.2% / 36.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.5% / 35.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.4% / 57.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.1% / 75.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Coleraine FC face HJK Helsinki in a UEFA Conference League qualifying tie where the visitors appear to hold a slight but credible advantage. HJK Helsinki are rated more strongly overall, although the assessment does not point to a one-sided contest. Coleraine FC should remain competitive, particularly if they can make effective use of home conditions and maintain their structure without allowing HJK to dictate the tempo.
The scoring outlook is relatively open, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests Coleraine FC may have opportunities to put pressure on the Finnish side, but HJK Helsinki have the greater potential to turn those moments into a decisive contribution. A draw remains a realistic scenario, while a narrow HJK Helsinki victory also fits the overall picture. The most plausible scorelines indicate a match that could stay balanced for long periods before the visitors gain the edge.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.