GKS Katowice — Hapoel Tel Aviv FC: Win probabilities, 12.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.9% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 55.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.8% / 23.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.9% / 70.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.6% / 85.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.2% / 93.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
GKS Katowice go into this UEFA Conference League qualifying match with a slight edge over Hapoel Tel Aviv FC. The assessment points towards a competitive encounter in which the hosts have the stronger overall position, although the gap between the teams is not large enough to rule out a draw. Home advantage therefore appears important, with GKS Katowice best placed to control the match if they can impose their rhythm early.
The game is expected to produce a moderate number of goals rather than become an open exchange from the outset. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the attacking contribution of each side remains an uncertain part of the outlook. Hapoel Tel Aviv FC should still have opportunities, but GKS Katowice appear more likely to avoid defeat. A narrow home victory or a draw fits the balanced nature of the projections.
What matters before kick-off
First leg qualifying result
In the first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round on August 6, 2026, Hapoel Tel Aviv defeated GKS Katowice 2-0 with goals from Stav Turiel and Roei Alkukin.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.