FC CSKA 1948 — Panathinaikos Athens: Win probabilities, 11.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 41.1% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 84.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.3% / 47.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.9% / 69.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC CSKA 1948 host Panathinaikos Athens in a UEFA Conference League qualification tie where the visitors hold a slight edge, although the low confidence level points to a relatively open assessment rather than a decisive prediction. The available indications suggest that Panathinaikos Athens may have the stronger overall position, but FC CSKA 1948 remain capable of making the contest competitive on home soil.
The match is expected to be medium-scoring, with possible outcomes ranging from a balanced 1-1 draw to a narrow Panathinaikos Athens victory. The possibility of both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the game could develop in several directions depending on the opening stages and how each side manages the pressure of qualification. Overall, the analytical signal leans toward the visitors, but the margin is limited and a draw remains a credible outcome.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.