Apollon Limassol — SK Brann: Win probabilities, 11.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.1% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 57.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.2% / 8.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.8% / 25.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.3% / 51.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.5% / 73.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Apollon Limassol have a slight edge over SK Brann in this UEFA Conference League qualification tie, although the moderate confidence level points to a competitive match rather than a clear mismatch. The available assessment suggests a medium-scoring contest, with the home side marginally better placed to control the key phases and create the more promising openings.
The possibility of both teams scoring is evenly balanced, so the match could develop in more than one direction. Apollon Limassol may look to make home advantage count through a controlled approach, while SK Brann should remain capable of threatening when space appears. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 2:1, reflecting the narrow gap between the teams and the uncertainty around the final outcome. Overall, the outlook gives Apollon Limassol a modest advantage, with the draw also a credible result.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.