Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza — Newell's Old Boys: Win probabilities, 12.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.2% |
| 12 | 68.2% | |
| X2 | 60.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.9% / 51.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.3% / 11.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.5% / 30.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.1% / 58.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.6% / 79.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.1% / 96.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.10.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 0:3
- 19.09.2026 home Dep. Riestra 0:0
- 11.09.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 0:2
- 05.09.2026 home Boca Juniors 2:2
- 30.08.2026 away Independiente 3:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 home Lanus 0:0
- 20.09.2026 away Platense 1:0
- 11.09.2026 home Velez Sarsfield 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Rosario Central 1:1
- 31.08.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 0:0
This season: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza at home vs Newell's Old Boys away
| Metric | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza · at home | Newell's Old Boys · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 7–3–3 | 3–4–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.31 | 0.92 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.85 | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 46% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 54% |
Head-to-head · Last 1 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Newell's Old Boys 1:0 Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.30 → now 2.45 |
| X | was 2.90 → now 3.00 |
| W2 | was 3.70 → now 3.30 |
Match preview
Newell's Old Boys in the Primera LPF, Clausura, on October 11. The matchup points towards a closely contested game, with Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza holding a slight edge. The home side has the more favorable outlook, although the difference between the teams is not substantial enough to expect a straightforward contest. A cautious approach may shape the encounter, particularly if both sides prioritize defensive organization over taking unnecessary risks.
A low-scoring match appears to be the most plausible scenario, with limited goals potentially keeping the result undecided until the later stages. A draw remains a credible possibility, while a narrow home victory is also consistent with the overall assessment. The prospect of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so neither a goal at each end nor a clean sheet should be treated as the dominant expectation. Overall, Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza have a modest advantage, but Newell's Old Boys remain capable of making this a competitive fixture. The most reasonable expectation is a tight match in which small margins could determine the outcome.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.