CA Rosario Central — Independiente Rivadavia: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.6% |
| 12 | 69.6% | |
| X2 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.9% / 50.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.2% / 10.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.7% / 27.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.6% / 55.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.4% / 76.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.3% / 89.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.9% / 96.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.10.2026 away Banfield 1:1
- 20.09.2026 home Argentinos Jrs 1:0
- 13.09.2026 away Tigre 1:0
- 06.09.2026 home Newells Old Boys 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Gimnasia L.P. 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 home Gimnasia L.P. 1:1
- 21.09.2026 away Barracas Central 1:0
- 12.09.2026 home Aldosivi 4:3
- 06.09.2026 away River Plate 1:3
- 31.08.2026 home Racing Club 3:1
This season: CA Rosario Central at home vs Independiente Rivadavia away
| Metric | CA Rosario Central · at home | Independiente Rivadavia · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 7–5–3 | 5–5–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.27 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.87 | 0.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 46% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 23.03.2026 Independiente Rivadavia 2:0 CA Rosario Central
- 05.11.2024 Independiente Rivadavia 1:1 CA Rosario Central
- 08.02.2024 CA Rosario Central 1:0 Independiente Rivadavia
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
ahead of their Primera LPF, Clausura meeting on October 11. The assessment favors the hosts, with a high level of confidence in the overall reading, although the difference between the teams is not substantial enough to suggest a one-sided contest. CA Rosario Central will be looking to make home advantage count, while Independiente Rivadavia have a reasonable opportunity to remain competitive and challenge for a positive result.
A medium-scoring match is the most plausible general outlook, with a draw remaining a credible possibility. The projected scorelines point towards a tight encounter, particularly a 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 home victory, while a goalless stalemate is another scenario to consider. Whether both teams find the net is difficult to separate, making goals at both ends an uncertain aspect of the preview. Overall, CA Rosario Central deserve a slight preference, especially when the possibility of a draw is taken into account. However, Independiente Rivadavia should not be discounted, and the match could remain finely balanced throughout.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.