CA San Lorenzo de Almagro — Deportivo Riestra AFBC: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.9% |
| 12 | 67.0% | |
| X2 | 57.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 37.5% / 62.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 84.1% / 15.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 57.7% / 42.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 29.7% / 70.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 12.6% / 87.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 1.3% / 98.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 0:3
- 20.09.2026 home Boca Juniors 0:2
- 13.09.2026 away Independiente 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 1:0
- 01.09.2026 away Instituto 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.10.2026 home Central Cordoba 1:1
- 19.09.2026 away Gimnasia Mendoza 0:0
- 14.09.2026 home Lanus 0:3
- 04.09.2026 away Platense 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Velez Sarsfield 1:1
This season: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro at home vs Deportivo Riestra AFBC away
| Metric | CA San Lorenzo de Almagro · at home | Deportivo Riestra AFBC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 6–2–5 | 0–6–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.23 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.15 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% | 8% |
| Both teams scored | 31% | 23% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 25.03.2026 Deportivo Riestra AFBC 1:1 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
- 31.10.2025 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 1:0 Deportivo Riestra AFBC
- 20.04.2025 Deportivo Riestra AFBC 0:0 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
- 12.05.2024 Deportivo Riestra AFBC 1:0 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
will face Deportivo Riestra AFBC in the Primera LPF, Clausura, with the hosts holding a slight edge going into the match. The assessment favors CA San Lorenzo de Almagro, although the difference between the sides does not suggest a one-sided contest. A cautious approach may be expected, with the hosts looking to make the most of their home advantage while Deportivo Riestra AFBC aim to remain competitive.
The outlook points toward a low-scoring encounter, where defensive discipline and the ability to capitalize on limited opportunities could prove important. The most plausible scorelines include a goalless draw, a narrow home victory, or a match in which both teams find the net once. A clean sheet appears a reasonable possibility, reinforcing the expectation of a game with few goals rather than an open exchange of attacks. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro have the stronger overall assessment, but a draw remains a credible alternative. The key question is whether the hosts can turn their slight advantage into a decisive breakthrough against Deportivo Riestra AFBC.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.