CA Lanus — Velez Sarsfield: Win probabilities, 12.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.6% |
| 12 | 68.5% | |
| X2 | 53.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.8% / 12.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.3% / 30.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.6% / 59.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.2% / 79.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.4% / 91.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.0% / 97.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.10.2026 away Newells Old Boys 0:0
- 22.09.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 2:1
- 14.09.2026 away Dep. Riestra 3:0
- 06.09.2026 home Defensa y Justicia 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Boca Juniors 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.10.2026 home Platense 2:2
- 21.09.2026 home Tigre 3:2
- 11.09.2026 away Newells Old Boys 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Dep. Riestra 1:1
This season: CA Lanus at home vs Velez Sarsfield away
| Metric | CA Lanus · at home | Velez Sarsfield · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 6–5–3 | 4–8–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.07 | 1.31 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.79 | 0.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 69% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Velez Sarsfield 0:1 CA Lanus
- 31.08.2025 Velez Sarsfield 3:0 CA Lanus
- 22.02.2025 CA Lanus 0:0 Velez Sarsfield
- 20.11.2024 Velez Sarsfield 0:0 CA Lanus
- 05.07.2023 CA Lanus 0:1 Velez Sarsfield
- 21.07.2022 CA Lanus 2:2 Velez Sarsfield
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.15 → now 2.05 |
| X | was 2.90 → now 3.00 |
| W2 | was 4.00 → now 4.33 |
Match preview
CA Lanus enter this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture with a slight edge over Velez Sarsfield, and the available assessment carries high confidence. The match profile points toward a controlled contest in which CA Lanus have the stronger overall position, although the margin between the sides is not expected to be substantial.
The scoring outlook is low-scoring, with 1:1, 0:0, and 1:0 identified as the likely scorelines. That suggests a match where opportunities may be limited and small moments could have significant influence. The assessment also treats both teams scoring as evenly balanced, so there is no clear indication that both sides will find the net. Overall, the signal favors CA Lanus while leaving a draw as a meaningful possibility.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.