Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata — Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.4% |
| 12 | 70.4% | |
| X2 | 49.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.7% / 11.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.5% / 30.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.9% / 79.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.8% / 91.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.2% / 96.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata have a slight edge over Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza in this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture. The assessment gives the hosts a high-confidence advantage, although the profile points toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest. The home side should be marginally better placed to control the game, but Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza remain well within reach of a positive result.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with both teams scoring considered a finely balanced possibility. That leaves several plausible match patterns: a narrow home win, a level game, or a goalless draw. The clearest overall signal is therefore in favour of Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata avoiding defeat, while the result itself remains less straightforward. A controlled opening and a tight contest could shape the match, with small details likely to decide whether the hosts turn their edge into three points or whether Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza hold them to a draw.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.