Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata — Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.7% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 44.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.6% / 54.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.1% / 10.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.2% / 28.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.2% / 77.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.7% / 90.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.6% / 96.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 0:4
- 09.08.2026 home Barracas Central 2:0
- 02.08.2026 away Aldosivi 2:1
- 29.07.2026 home River Plate 1:0
- 24.07.2026 away Racing Club 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.08.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 3:1
- 09.08.2026 away Instituto 0:1
- 01.08.2026 home Union de Santa Fe 2:0
- 28.07.2026 away San Lorenzo 0:1
- 24.07.2026 home Central Cordoba 1:0
This season: Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata at home vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza away
| Metric | Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata · at home | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 6–1–3 | 1–3–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
Head-to-head · Last 1 meetings
- 21.02.2026 Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 0:1 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata have a slight edge over Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza in this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting. The assessment is cautious, however, with low confidence separating the teams clearly. The projected profile points toward a medium-scoring match, suggesting that the contest could develop through a balanced exchange rather than a strongly one-sided performance.
Both teams scoring is considered a coin flip, so there is no firm indication that either side will find the net. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0, and 2:0, which reflects the narrow difference between the teams while still giving Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata the stronger position. Overall, the hosts appear marginally better placed, but the limited confidence leaves a draw as a credible outcome and makes the match difficult to separate with certainty.
What matters before kick-off
Gimnasia La Plata squad updates
Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata will be without Alexis Steimbach and German Conti due to suspensions. Meanwhile, defender Renzo Giampaoli returns to the squad after recovering from a muscle injury.
Recent result for Gimnasia Mendoza
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza head into matchday 6 of the 2026 Clausura following a 3-1 home victory against Talleres in their previous league fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.