CA Independiente Avellaneda — Independiente Rivadavia: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.6% |
| 12 | 68.5% | |
| X2 | 61.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.6% / 52.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.2% / 11.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.0% / 32.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.9% / 60.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.7% / 80.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.9% / 97.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.08.2026 away Lanus 3:1
- 09.08.2026 home Platense 0:1
- 03.08.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 0:1
- 31.07.2026 home Newells Old Boys 1:0
- 26.07.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 away Belgrano 0:2
- 08.08.2026 home Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2:1
- 03.08.2026 away Sarmiento Junin 1:2
- 30.07.2026 home Huracan 2:1
- 26.07.2026 away Atl. Tucuman 0:0
This season: CA Independiente Avellaneda at home vs Independiente Rivadavia away
| Metric | CA Independiente Avellaneda · at home | Independiente Rivadavia · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 5–3–2 | 4–4–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.60 | 1.10 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 21.02.2026 Independiente Rivadavia 3:2 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 11.05.2025 CA Independiente Avellaneda 1:0 Independiente Rivadavia
- 27.07.2024 Independiente Rivadavia 1:0 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 27.01.2024 Independiente Rivadavia 0:1 CA Independiente Avellaneda
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Independiente Avellaneda has a slight edge over Independiente Rivadavia in this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting. The overall signal supports the hosts avoiding defeat, with the 1X outcome pointing toward either a home win or a draw. Even with relatively high confidence in that direction, the advantage is narrow rather than decisive, so Independiente Rivadavia remain capable of making the match competitive.
The scoring outlook is moderate, suggesting a game that is unlikely to become especially open. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, with that aspect effectively balanced between the two possibilities. The leading scoreline is 1:1, followed by a 1:0 home win and a goalless draw, which reinforces the expectation of a controlled contest with limited margin between the teams.
What matters before kick-off
Managerial debut for Jadson Viera
Uruguayan manager Jadson Viera will make his official debut in charge of CA Independiente against Independiente Rivadavia. He succeeds Gustavo Quinteros following an interim spell led by Carlos Matheu.
CA Independiente bounce back with away win
Prior to the coaching change, CA Independiente secured a 2-1 away victory against Lanús in round five of the Clausura. The win ended a three-match losing streak for the Avellaneda side across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.