CA Sarmiento Junin — Estudiantes de La Plata: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.0% |
| 12 | 66.9% | |
| X2 | 73.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.0% / 13.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 67.6% / 32.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 38.6% / 61.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 18.7% / 81.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.7% / 97.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home Huracan 2:0
- 08.08.2026 away Atl. Tucuman 2:1
- 03.08.2026 home Ind. Rivadavia 2:1
- 28.07.2026 away Banfield 2:3
- 23.07.2026 home Argentinos Jrs 2:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 home Gimnasia L.P. 4:0
- 08.08.2026 away Dep. Riestra 0:2
- 05.08.2026 away Boca Juniors 0:1
- 01.08.2026 home Defensa y Justicia 3:0
- 26.07.2026 home Independiente 0:2
This season: CA Sarmiento Junin at home vs Estudiantes de La Plata away
| Metric | CA Sarmiento Junin · at home | Estudiantes de La Plata · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 7–1–3 | 4–3–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.36 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.91 | 0.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 20% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 20.02.2026 Estudiantes de La Plata 1:0 CA Sarmiento Junin
- 13.06.2024 CA Sarmiento Junin 2:0 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 09.03.2024 CA Sarmiento Junin 3:1 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 23.10.2023 Estudiantes de La Plata 2:1 CA Sarmiento Junin
- 25.02.2023 Estudiantes de La Plata 1:1 CA Sarmiento Junin
- 15.06.2022 Estudiantes de La Plata 2:1 CA Sarmiento Junin
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Sarmiento Junin face Estudiantes de La Plata in a fixture that is expected to remain close and relatively cautious. The overall assessment gives Estudiantes de La Plata a slight edge, with the visitors better placed to avoid defeat than the hosts. That advantage is not decisive, however, and the balance of the match still leaves room for a draw.
The scoring outlook points to a low-scoring contest, where limited chances could make each attacking moment important. Both teams scoring is viewed as difficult to assess, rather than a clear expectation in either direction. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 0:0 and 0:1, reflecting a match that could be settled by a single goal or remain level throughout. On that basis, the main analytical signal favours Estudiantes de La Plata avoiding defeat, while CA Sarmiento Junin will likely need to keep the game controlled and compact.
What matters before kick-off
Sarmiento's winning streak
Sarmiento de Junin enters the match on a three-game winning streak following victories against Independiente Rivadavia, Atletico Tucuman, and Huracan.
Strong week for Estudiantes
Estudiantes de La Plata enters the match following a derby win against Gimnasia and qualification for the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.