Galatasaray Istanbul — Fenerbahce Istanbul: Win probabilities, 26.10.2026

Galatasaray Istanbul enter this Super Lig encounter against Fenerbahce Istanbul in strong form, having won four of their last five matches. They sit first in the league with 19 points from eight games and have remained unbeaten at home this season, recording three wins and one draw. Their home performances have also been productive in attack, with nine goals scored in four matches. The hosts create clearly more chances than they allow, giving them a solid foundation, although their seven goals conceded across their last five matches suggest there is room for opponents to threaten.

Fenerbahce Istanbul arrive with an equally compelling case, particularly in terms of recent defensive consistency. They have scored 15 goals and conceded just two across their last five matches, collecting three wins and a draw. Third in the standings with 16 points, they have also shown resilience away from home, conceding only twice in four away fixtures. Both sides create more chances than they allow, making this a contest between two teams capable of controlling attacking phases rather than a straightforward home advantage.

The overall balance points towards an evenly matched encounter with opportunities at both ends. Galatasaray Istanbul benefit from their home record, while Fenerbahce Istanbul bring the stronger recent goal difference. Their last meeting ended in a 3-0 victory for Galatasaray Istanbul, but the current form of both teams suggests a competitive match in which neither side can be comfortably favoured.