Besiktas Istanbul — Istanbul Basaksehir: Win probabilities, 26.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.9% |
| 12 | 82.6% | |
| X2 | 29.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.4% / 40.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.9% / 12.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.5% / 30.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.1% / 70.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 26.10.2026
Besiktas Istanbul
6th place · 15 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.10.2026 away Trabzonspor 0:2
- 11.10.2026 home Kocaelispor 2:1
- 20.09.2026 away Amedspor 2:3
- 11.09.2026 home Erzurumspor 3:0
- 05.09.2026 away Fenerbahce 2:1
Istanbul Basaksehir
12th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 home Gaziantep 2:1
- 11.10.2026 away Konyaspor 0:0
- 19.09.2026 home Genclerbirligi 4:0
- 13.09.2026 away Amedspor 0:5
- 04.09.2026 home Galatasaray 2:3
This season: Besiktas Istanbul at home vs Istanbul Basaksehir away
| Metric | Besiktas Istanbul · at home | Istanbul Basaksehir · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 4–0–0 | 0–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 0.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.75 | 2.33 |
| xG for per match | 2.16 | 1.11 |
| xG against per match | 0.71 | 2.31 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 1.67 |
| Corners per match | 7.50 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.02.2026 Istanbul Basaksehir 2:3 Besiktas Istanbul
- 13.09.2025 Besiktas Istanbul 2:1 Istanbul Basaksehir
- 12.04.2025 Besiktas Istanbul 0:2 Istanbul Basaksehir
- 10.11.2024 Istanbul Basaksehir 0:0 Besiktas Istanbul
- 04.04.2024 Istanbul Basaksehir 1:1 Besiktas Istanbul
- 12.11.2023 Besiktas Istanbul 1:0 Istanbul Basaksehir
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.29 → now 1.38 |
| X | was 5.50 → now 5.00 |
| W2 | was 9.00 → now 7.00 |
Match preview
Besiktas Istanbul enter this Super Lig fixture against Istanbul Basaksehir with a clear advantage, particularly given their outstanding home record. They have won all four of their home matches this season, scoring 12 goals and conceding just three. Their ability to create significantly more chances than they allow provides a strong foundation for another positive performance. Besiktas Istanbul have also won three of their last five matches, scoring nine goals in that period, although their two defeats show that consistency remains a factor to consider.
Istanbul Basaksehir face a more difficult challenge, especially away from home. They have collected just one point from three away matches, scoring once and conceding seven goals. Their recent form is mixed, with two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five games, while their defensive record suggests they may struggle to contain sustained attacking pressure. Besiktas Istanbul also won the most recent meeting, a 3-2 away victory in 2026, reinforcing their recent advantage in this matchup.
The overall balance clearly favours Besiktas Istanbul. Their home performances, superior chance creation and Istanbul Basaksehir's away difficulties all point towards the hosts controlling much of the contest. With both teams showing some vulnerability in recent matches, an open game with several goals is plausible, though the visitors' contribution to the scoring remains uncertain.
What matters before kick-off
Beşiktaş squad absences
Beşiktaş captain Orkun Kökçü remains sidelined through injury. He is joined on the unavailable list by Fabio Miretti, who suffered a shoulder injury against Crystal Palace in the Europa League, and Ümit Akdağ due to a hand fracture.
Beşiktaş recent Europa League result
On Thursday prior to this Süper Lig match, Beşiktaş drew 2-2 at home against English side Crystal Palace in the UEFA Europa League.
Beşiktaş recent head-to-head record
Beşiktaş won both Süper Lig encounters against Istanbul Basaksehir last season, securing a 2-1 victory at home and a 3-2 win away.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.