Fulham — Chelsea: Win probabilities, 24.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.8% |
| 12 | 73.0% | |
| X2 | 74.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.1% / 48.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.0% / 71.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.0% / 86.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 home Newcastle 2:0
- 17.05.2026 away Wolves 1:1
- 09.05.2026 home Bournemouth 0:1
- 02.05.2026 away Arsenal 0:3
- 25.04.2026 home Aston Villa 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 away Sunderland 1:2
- 19.05.2026 home Tottenham 2:1
- 09.05.2026 away Liverpool 1:1
- 04.05.2026 home Nott'm Forest 1:3
- 21.04.2026 away Brighton 0:3
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.01.2026 Fulham 2:1 Chelsea
- 30.08.2025 Chelsea 2:0 Fulham
- 20.04.2025 Fulham 1:2 Chelsea
- 26.12.2024 Chelsea 1:2 Fulham
- 13.01.2024 Chelsea 1:0 Fulham
- 02.10.2023 Fulham 0:2 Chelsea
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Fulham face Chelsea in an EPL meeting where the visitors hold a slight edge. The available assessment points toward Chelsea avoiding defeat, with the away side rated more favourably overall. Confidence in that direction is high, although the margin between the teams is not presented as decisive.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, suggesting a contest with a balanced attacking output rather than an expectation of a one-sided result. Both teams scoring is viewed as a coin flip, so there is no clear signal on whether Fulham and Chelsea will both find the net. The most plausible scoreline range points to a close match, with a draw and a narrow Chelsea victory both consistent with the assessment.
What matters before kick-off
Fulham squad availability
Fulham midfielder Tom Cairney is ruled out with an injury, while defender Joachim Andersen is unavailable due to suspension.
Chelsea's Fofana suspended
Chelsea defender Wesley Fofana is serving a suspension and will miss the opening two fixtures of the season.
Premier League debuts for both managers
The match serves as the competitive Premier League debut for both managers, with Alvaro Arbeloa in charge of Fulham and Xabi Alonso leading Chelsea.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.