Fulham — Chelsea: Win probabilities, 24.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.8% |
| 12 | 73.0% | |
| X2 | 74.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.1% / 48.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.0% / 71.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.0% / 86.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Fulham face Chelsea in an EPL meeting where the visitors hold a slight edge. The available assessment points toward Chelsea avoiding defeat, with the away side rated more favourably overall. Confidence in that direction is high, although the margin between the teams is not presented as decisive.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, suggesting a contest with a balanced attacking output rather than an expectation of a one-sided result. Both teams scoring is viewed as a coin flip, so there is no clear signal on whether Fulham and Chelsea will both find the net. The most plausible scoreline range points to a close match, with a draw and a narrow Chelsea victory both consistent with the assessment.
What matters before kick-off
Fulham squad availability
Fulham midfielder Tom Cairney is ruled out with an injury, while defender Joachim Andersen is unavailable due to suspension.
Chelsea's Fofana suspended
Chelsea defender Wesley Fofana is serving a suspension and will miss the opening two fixtures of the season.
Premier League debuts for both managers
The match serves as the competitive Premier League debut for both managers, with Alvaro Arbeloa in charge of Fulham and Xabi Alonso leading Chelsea.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.