Fulham — Chelsea: Win probabilities, 24.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.1% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 69.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.4% / 29.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.7% / 11.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.1% / 30.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.6% / 71.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.1% / 84.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Fulham face Chelsea in an EPL meeting that points towards an open and competitive contest. The assessment suggests a high-scoring game, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes the attacking phases particularly important, while the defensive work of both sides could determine whether the match remains balanced or develops in Chelsea’s favour.
The teams appear capable of creating enough opportunities to produce several goals, and the likely scorelines reflect a closely fought match rather than a one-sided affair. Fulham have a credible route to a positive result, especially if they make good use of home advantage, but Chelsea hold a slight edge in the overall outlook. With moderate confidence in that assessment, the most reasonable expectation is a tight game in which both teams remain involved until the final stages.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.