FK Auda Riga — Fotbal Club FCSB: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 42.3% |
| 12 | 77.6% | |
| X2 | 80.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.2% / 22.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.3% / 68.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 5.00 → now 4.33 |
| X2 | was 1.53 → now 1.65 |
Match preview
FK Auda Riga face Fotbal Club FCSB in the UEFA Conference League qualification, with the visitors carrying the clearer overall edge. The assessment is moderate rather than decisive, but FCSB appear better placed to control the match and create the more consistent threat. Auda Riga may still find opportunities, particularly if they can resist pressure and make effective use of their home setting.
The game is expected to fall into a medium-scoring pattern, with narrow margins more likely than an open contest. The most plausible scenarios point towards FCSB winning by a single goal or adding a second, while a draw remains a credible alternative. Whether both teams score is finely balanced, so the match could depend on which side handles the key moments in the final third more efficiently. Overall, there is a measured advantage for Fotbal Club FCSB, but not enough to dismiss a competitive response from FK Auda Riga.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.