FK Auda Riga — FC Dinamo City: Win probabilities, 04.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.9% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 57.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.6% / 26.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.0% / 74.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FK Auda Riga have a slight edge over FC Dinamo City in this UEFA Conference League qualification tie, although the moderate confidence level points to a closely balanced contest rather than a one-sided meeting. The home side’s advantage is reflected in the broader 1X signal, suggesting that FK Auda Riga are better placed to avoid defeat, particularly with home conditions in their favour.
The scoring outlook is medium, so the match could develop through a limited number of decisive moments rather than sustained attacking dominance. Both teams scoring remains finely balanced, making it difficult to identify a clear pattern for how the goals may arrive. A narrow FK Auda Riga win and a draw both fit the overall assessment, while FC Dinamo City remain capable of keeping the tie competitive. The key factor may be whether the hosts can turn their slight territorial or situational advantage into the opening goal without allowing the visitors to respond.
What matters before kick-off
Qualification for the third round
FK Auda advanced to the third qualifying round of the 2026/27 UEFA Conference League to host Albanian club FC Dinamo City in the first leg.
Referee assignment
Spanish referee José Luis Munuera has been appointed to officiate the first leg between FK Auda and FC Dinamo City.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.