Ferencvarosi Budapest — Gornik Zabrze: Win probabilities, 05.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.2% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 42.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.0% / 22.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.3% / 47.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.1% / 69.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Ferencvarosi Budapest have a slight edge over Gornik Zabrze in this UEFA Europa League qualification match, although the low confidence level points to a closely contested encounter rather than a clear home advantage. The assessment leans toward Ferencvarosi Budapest, but Gornik Zabrze remain capable of making the tie difficult, particularly if they can keep the game balanced through the early stages.
A medium-scoring match is the most appropriate expectation, with both teams scoring remaining difficult to separate. The leading scoreline is 1:1, while 2:0 and 1:0 also fit the overall outlook. That range suggests Ferencvarosi Budapest may have enough control to secure a narrow result, but the possibility of a draw remains significant. The match is scheduled for 5 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
What matters before kick-off
Górnik Zabrze transition to Europa League
Górnik Zabrze entered the Europa League third qualifying round after being eliminated from Champions League qualification by Fenerbahce, losing 2-1 on aggregate (0-1 away and 1-1 at home).
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.